EUR/USD Forecast: French Business Confidence and Fed Chair Powell in Focus

France Business Confidence Figures and Middle East Conflict

On Thursday, investors will be paying close attention to business confidence figures coming from France. However, it could gesture a better overall profitable situation If there is an enhancement in business confidence. A positive, profitable outlook could lead to increased business investments, advanced stipends, and further consumer spending. Private consumption in France makes up more than 50 of the country's frugality. 

Economists are prognosticating that the French Business Survey Index will stay steady at 99 in October. 

In addition to profitable data, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East remains a critical concern. However, it might dampen enthusiasm for the EUR/USD currency brace If the conflict escalates. 

Fed Chair Powell's Statements and the U.S. Unemployment Claims

Likewise, Fed Chair Powell's statements and U.S. unemployment claims will be in the limelight. A strong job request can lead to pay envelope growth, which energies consumer spending and demand driving inflation. However, it would support the idea of the Federal Reserve following a more aggressive interest rate path If original unemployed claims stay stable. Advanced interest rates can increase borrowing costs and affect disposable income, potentially causing consumers to cut back on spending and reducing inflationary pressures driven by demand. 

Still, it's also important to keep an eye on the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and its factors. Any unanticipated decline in manufacturing exertion might raise enterprises about the adaptability of the U.S. frugality. 

Later in the U.S. trading session, Fed Chair Powell is listed to speak. His commentary about the profitable outlook, affectation, and interest rates will have an impact on the request's appetite for the U.S. bond. Several other FOMC members will also be giving speeches, including Jefferson, Goldsbee, Barr, Bostic, and Harker.  

Short-Term Outlook 

In the short term, the trends in EUR/ USD depend on factors like the Middle East conflict and central bank guidance. Unless there are significant sins in the U.S. frugality, the EUR/USD remains vulnerable to downcast pressures. Strong U.S. labor request conditions and consumer spending are factors that favor a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.  

EUR/USD Price Movement 

The EUR/USD currency brace is presently trading below both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving parts (EMAs), motioning a bearish request trend. 

If the EUR/USD drops below the $1.05230 support position, it might move toward $1.0450 and also the $1.03922 support position. A worsening Middle East conflict and hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve could impact the EUR/USD's attractiveness.

On the other hand, if Fed Chair Powell adopts a more pacifist station and the Middle East situation eases, the EUR/USD could target the $1.06342 resistance position.


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